Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.050673 0.057980 0.066033 0.075575 0.086587 0.098912 0.113777
2024-12-15 0.039645 0.049609 0.061667 0.077378 0.097385 0.122105 0.155117
2024-12-22 0.032686 0.043441 0.057305 0.076581 0.102846 0.137604 0.187459
2024-12-29 0.029103 0.040631 0.056279 0.079232 0.112314 0.158679 0.229309
2025-01-05 0.024788 0.036052 0.052018 0.076511 0.113525 0.167987 0.255323
2025-01-12 0.021783 0.032854 0.049161 0.075204 0.116273 0.179412 0.285504
2025-01-19 0.018927 0.029481 0.045565 0.072189 0.115807 0.185569 0.307838
2025-01-26 0.017845 0.028681 0.045755 0.075027 0.124817 0.207617 0.358947
2025-02-02 0.016886 0.027943 0.045916 0.077759 0.133868 0.230675 0.414774
2025-02-09 0.016028 0.027261 0.046060 0.080417 0.143013 0.254860 0.475784
2025-02-16 0.014735 0.025690 0.044516 0.079905 0.146376 0.269010 0.519829
2025-02-23 0.013747 0.024544 0.043578 0.080344 0.151468 0.286828 0.573242
2025-03-02 0.012714 0.023240 0.042270 0.080036 0.155272 0.302982 0.626370
2025-03-09 0.012108 0.022666 0.042246 0.082187 0.164178 0.330347 0.707116
2025-03-16 0.011189 0.021402 0.040787 0.081333 0.166870 0.345348 0.763263
2025-03-23 0.010789 0.021099 0.041141 0.084158 0.177518 0.378299 0.864494
2025-03-30 0.009806 0.019544 0.038864 0.081258 0.175532 0.383633 0.902400
2025-04-06 0.009078 0.018435 0.037377 0.079865 0.176666 0.395971 0.958790
2025-04-13 0.008248 0.017038 0.035164 0.076652 0.173305 0.397589 0.988883
2025-04-20 0.008053 0.016962 0.035727 0.079676 0.184710 0.435252 1.116567
2025-04-27 0.007855 0.016861 0.036219 0.082588 0.196198 0.474593 1.255028
2025-05-04 0.007658 0.016742 0.036659 0.085421 0.207834 0.515816 1.405395
2025-05-11 0.007220 0.016042 0.035729 0.084875 0.210957 0.535742 1.499355